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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/22 10:50

   Grain Futures Mixed Midday Tuesday

   Corn is 4 to 5 cents higher up front and 9 to 10 cents lower on new crop; 
soybeans are 3 to 4 cents lower, and wheat is 3 cents lower to 24 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 45 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 0.08 higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are mixed with 
crude off $0.65. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious metals are mixed 
with gold down $4.


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents higher up front, with new crop 9 to 10 cents 
lower as early strength on new crop fades as weather forecasts look manageable 
for many short term, while spread strength continues to build again, taking the 
July/Dec towards $1.20. Ethanol margins are seeing support from corn values 
holding the lower end of the range with policy concerns limiting upside while 
demand remains solid short term. Brazil weather looks mostly unchanged short 
term as the crop advances towards harvest with some late rains while U.S. 
weather is watched for follow-up rains as well as temps into July with less 
heat stress for most this week. Corn basis should remain flat to weaker near 
term with more attention going to new crop as well as feed wheat becoming 
available. Weekly crop conditions were down 3% to 65% good to excellent, and 6% 
poor to very poor. On the July contract, trade is back below the 20-day at 
$6.65 failing to hold above on tests, with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.22 as 


   Soybeans are 3 to 4 cents lower with meal unable to support rallies so far 
as oil recovers with no follow-up sales of new crop after the 456,000 metric 
tons announced Monday. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 lower and oil is 0.80 cent to 
1.00 cent higher. The weather pattern should allow for better short-term 
development with rains needed to boost double-crop areas during planting as 
wheat comes off. Weekly crop progress showed conditions 2% lower to 60% good to 
excellent, and 9% poor to very poor, with planting at 97% versus 96% on 
average, emergence at 91% versus 85% on average and 5% blooming, same as 
average. South America should continue to see shipping progress short term, 
with U.S. basis returning to flat short term. On the July soybean chart, 
support is the lower Bollinger Band at R13.65 as trade rebounds with the $14.50 
area that was pre-washout support the next round up as resistance.


   Wheat trade is 3 cents lower to 24 cents higher with spring wheat the leader 
while winter wheat action is flat to start. The dollar is firmer, testing 92 
points on the index again, holding the highest levels since March. Harvest 
should continue to pick up steam with last week's heat pushing action along. 
Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to be watched as well with 
little fresh news on the front with Russia mostly OK for now. KC continues at a 
58-cent discount to Chicago backing off the fresh highs Monday, with 
Minneapolis at a 132-cent premium, getting back to the highs. Weekly crop 
progress showed winter wheat at 49% good to excellent, 20% poor to very poor, 
down 1% with 17% harvested versus 26% on average. Spring wheat is 27% headed 
versus 18% on average, and 27% good to excellent; 37% poor to very poor, down 
10%. KC July on the chart has resistance the 20-day at $6.20 with support at 
the lower Bollinger Band at $5.88.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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